Artificial intelligence has been surrounded by dramatic predictions about the future of work for years, but Goldman Sachs has now raised its own estimate of AI-driven job displacement in the United States. The investment bank believes generative AI could affect more than 9% of the U.S. workforce over the next decade—equivalent to roughly 15 million jobs.
The report doesn’t paint an entirely bleak picture, however. Goldman Sachs also argues that AI is likely to create entirely new categories of employment while boosting productivity across the economy.
Table of contents
- Goldman Sachs raises its AI displacement forecast
- Why the estimate has increased
- AI is also expected to create new jobs
- What this means for the future workforce
- AI jobs: key questions
Goldman Sachs raises its AI displacement forecast
According to Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs, generative AI could displace more than 9% of U.S. jobs over the next ten years. Based on today’s workforce, that represents approximately 15 million workers.
This marks a significant increase from Goldman Sachs’ earlier estimate, which suggested AI would affect around 6% to 7% of American jobs.
Importantly, the projection describes potential job displacement—not permanent unemployment. Workers whose roles disappear may still transition into different positions as the labor market evolves.
Why the estimate has increased
The higher forecast isn’t solely the result of faster AI progress. Goldman Sachs also changed the way it measures labor market disruption.
Rather than focusing on the overall number of unemployed workers at any given moment, the new model analyzes the flow of workers leaving existing occupations.
Under this methodology, every 1% increase in technology-driven productivity is assumed to increase the job destruction rate by roughly 0.5% to 0.6% over the following two years.
Goldman Sachs believes generative AI could deliver productivity gains beyond those achieved by previous waves of automation, making the revised estimate more realistic.
AI is also expected to create new jobs
The firm’s outlook is far from purely pessimistic.
Goldman Sachs expects AI to generate entirely new professions while complementing the roughly 25 million to 35 million jobs already created annually across the U.S. economy.
Recent examples suggest that transition is already underway.
Cloud software company Box recently revealed that AI has led to the creation of multiple new internal roles, including AI architects, AI solutions managers, model evaluators and AI business automation engineers. CEO Aaron Levie has also argued that forward deployed engineers could become one of the fastest-growing technical careers in the AI era.
What this means for the future workforce
The latest forecast highlights a recurring theme in the AI debate: automation may eliminate some jobs while simultaneously creating others.
Goldman Sachs estimates that if AI-related displacement unfolds gradually over a decade—and if most affected workers secure new employment within about a year—the peak increase in the U.S. unemployment rate would remain below one percentage point.
Not everyone shares the same level of optimism. Labor market experts have noted that technology companies are increasingly citing AI as a reason for workforce reductions, particularly in white-collar positions.
Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently acknowledged that AI has eliminated fewer entry-level office jobs than he previously expected, suggesting that adoption may be progressing more gradually than many early forecasts anticipated.
As generative AI continues to spread across industries, the biggest challenge may not simply be the number of jobs lost, but how quickly workers can acquire the skills needed for the new roles AI is creating.
For more information, see the original reporting from PYMNTS.
AI jobs: key questions
Will AI eliminate 15 million jobs immediately?
No. Goldman Sachs estimates the displacement would occur gradually over approximately ten years.
Does job displacement mean permanent unemployment?
Not necessarily. The forecast assumes many workers will transition into new occupations as AI adoption expands.
Why did Goldman Sachs increase its estimate?
The bank adopted a new methodology that measures worker movement out of existing jobs instead of focusing only on unemployment levels.
Is AI expected to create new jobs too?
Yes. Goldman Sachs believes AI will create new occupations and increase overall productivity, offsetting part of the disruption.