Xiaomi has spent the past few years trying to prove it is no longer just a smartphone company. The Chinese tech giant has pushed deeper into AIoT, smart home hardware, international markets and, most visibly, electric vehicles with the SU7.
The stock market initially loved the story. Then, after a powerful run into late September 2025, Xiaomi’s Hong Kong-listed shares entered a much harsher phase. Since that peak, 1810.HK has been less about “EV breakout” and more about execution risk, component costs, safety scrutiny and whether Xiaomi can turn a great consumer brand into a durable auto-tech profit engine.
- The September peak
- Why the stock rolled over
- EV growth is still the core bull case
- Smartphones and AIoT are no longer background noise
- Analysts remain constructive, but not blind
- What investors should watch next
- Xiaomi stock: key questions
The September peak
Xiaomi’s share price hit a high of roughly HK$59.5 in late September 2025, after a long stretch of excitement around the company’s electric vehicle strategy, the SU7, AI integration and its broader connected-device ecosystem.
That moment looked like the perfect Xiaomi narrative: smartphones gave it scale, AIoT gave it ecosystem stickiness, and EVs gave it a massive new market. Investors were not just valuing Xiaomi as a handset maker. They were starting to price it as a Chinese tech platform with credible ambitions in cars.
Since then, the tone has changed dramatically. By late May 2026, Xiaomi shares were trading around HK$28 to HK$30, implying a drawdown of roughly 50% from the September peak. The move is not just a normal pullback. It is a full valuation reset.
Why the stock rolled over
The first problem is that Xiaomi’s EV story moved from launch excitement into operational reality. Building popular cars is hard. Building popular cars profitably, at scale, in China’s brutal EV market is even harder.
Competition remains fierce, with Tesla, BYD and a long list of domestic players fighting on price, features, software and delivery speed. Xiaomi has a powerful brand, but the EV market does not reward vibes for long. It rewards volume, margins, safety, service capacity and supply-chain discipline.
The second pressure point is cost inflation. Reuters reported in May 2026 that Xiaomi’s first-quarter adjusted net profit fell 43%, with higher memory-chip costs and tougher domestic smartphone competition weighing on results. Smartphone revenue also declined, while Xiaomi continued investing heavily in EVs and AI. Reuters
The third factor is sentiment around safety. Xiaomi’s SU7 faced public scrutiny after serious accidents in 2025. Reuters reported in January 2026 that Xiaomi began pre-orders for an upgraded SU7 while stressing safety features, after concerns around fatal accidents involving Xiaomi EVs in 2025. Reuters
None of this means Xiaomi’s EV business is broken. But it does explain why the market stopped giving the company automatic credit for future growth.
EV growth is still the core bull case
The reason analysts have not abandoned Xiaomi is simple: the EV numbers still matter.
Xiaomi delivered roughly 410,000 vehicles in 2025 and has set a target of 550,000 deliveries for 2026, according to CnEVPost. That would represent about 34% growth year over year. CnEVPost
The company has also continued to refresh its vehicle lineup. Reuters reported in April 2026 that Xiaomi had delivered 26,000 upgraded SU7 units and secured 60,000 locked orders for the new models as of April 23. Reuters
That is the bullish version of the story: Xiaomi is not dabbling in cars. It is scaling fast, using its consumer brand, software culture and ecosystem playbook to attack one of the largest hardware markets in the world.
The bearish version is equally obvious: EVs can drive revenue growth while still eating cash, compressing margins and exposing Xiaomi to quality-control risks that are far more dangerous than a weak smartphone cycle.
Smartphones and AIoT are no longer background noise
Before EVs, Xiaomi was already a massive hardware ecosystem company. Its smartphones, wearables, TVs, home devices and connected products gave it global reach and a strong position in affordable tech.
That legacy business still matters. In fact, it may matter more now because EV investment is expensive. If smartphones and AIoT weaken at the same time Xiaomi is scaling cars, the market gets nervous.
Reuters reported that Xiaomi missed its 180 million smartphone shipment goal in 2025, shipping 165.2 million units instead. The same report said full-year adjusted profit rose 43.8% and revenue increased 25%, but also noted a fourth-quarter profit decline and pressure from rising memory costs. Reuters
That mix captures the Xiaomi dilemma perfectly. Growth is real. The ecosystem is real. But the margin profile is under pressure, and investors are no longer willing to ignore that.
Analysts remain constructive, but not blind
Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive. Investing.com’s Xiaomi consensus page shows a Buy rating, with a 12-month average price target around HK$43 and a wide range of estimates, from roughly HK$25 at the low end to nearly HK$79 at the high end. Investing.com
That wide spread matters. It says analysts are not debating whether Xiaomi is interesting. They are debating how much execution risk should be priced in.
The bull case is that Xiaomi’s EV business scales faster than expected, AI strengthens its device ecosystem, international expansion offsets China weakness, and margins recover once component costs ease.
The bear case is that EV competition gets uglier, safety concerns weigh on the brand, smartphones remain pressured, and the market keeps compressing Xiaomi’s valuation because profits become harder to forecast.
In other words, the consensus is constructive, but not carefree.
What investors should watch next
The next phase for Xiaomi stock will likely depend on three things.
First, EV delivery momentum. The 550,000-unit target for 2026 is ambitious enough to support the bull case, but also demanding enough to punish any stumble.
Second, EV margins. Revenue growth is nice. Sustainable profitability is the upgrade the market wants to see.
Third, smartphone resilience. Xiaomi cannot afford to become a one-story EV stock while its core consumer-electronics business absorbs margin pressure.
The trajectory since September 2025 is therefore best described as hype, reset, then proof phase. Xiaomi has not lost the market’s attention. It has lost the benefit of the doubt.
That is a very different setup.
Xiaomi stock: key questions
Why has Xiaomi stock fallen since September 2025?
Xiaomi stock corrected after a strong EV-driven rally, as investors focused on tougher EV competition, component cost pressure, smartphone weakness, safety scrutiny and the challenge of scaling car production profitably.
Is Xiaomi still growing?
Yes. Xiaomi continues to grow in EVs and remains a major player in smartphones and connected devices. However, growth is now being judged against margins, execution risk and cash intensity.
What is the main bull case for Xiaomi?
The bull case is that Xiaomi can turn its EV business into a large, profitable growth engine while using AI and its smart-device ecosystem to strengthen customer loyalty across categories.
What is the main risk for Xiaomi?
The biggest risk is that EV expansion becomes margin-dilutive or operationally messy, especially if competition intensifies and smartphone profitability remains under pressure.
What do analysts think about Xiaomi stock?
Most analyst consensus data remains positive, with a broad Buy or Overweight tone and average 12-month price targets above recent trading levels. The range of targets is wide, which reflects high uncertainty.
Is this financial advice?
No. This article is for information and editorial analysis only. It is not financial advice, investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Xiaomi shares.